MARC record from Internet Archive

LEADER: 02165cam 2200289Ia 4500
001 339825
005 20110228084418.0
008 790905e19790209ilua b s000 0 eng d
035 $a(OCoLC)ocm05341592
040 $aUIU$cUIU$dUIU
092 $a338.27$bM227p
092 $a330$bB385, no.541-551
049 $aUIUU
100 1 $aMcMahon, Walter W.
245 10 $aPredicting inflation rates with changing oil prices /$cWalter W. McMahon, Douglas E. Goodman.
260 $a[Urbana, Ill.] :$bCollege of Commerce and Business Administration, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign,$cFeb. 9, 1979.
300 $a19 p. :$bgraphs ;$c28 cm.
490 1 $aFaculty working papers ;$vno. 545
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 17).
520 $a"This paper estimates the effect of higher crude-oil prices on the inflation rate in the U.S. It does so by estimating a price equation, within a model of wage-price interaction, that contains a term to capture the inflationary impact of crude oil prices. This term is inserted using a third degree polynomial distributed lag of four quarters that allows not only for some immediate impact on the consumer price index (e.g. through gasoline prices), but also for a delayed impact as crude oil prices affect production costs, wage rates, and eventually final goods prices. Since increase in crude oil prices appear to be a continuing source of exogenous shocks on the system, simulations are presented that estimate the net effect of these increases; in this case of the 14.5% increase announced by OPEC for 1979 on the remaining quarters in 1979 and 1980. If OPEC policies, Iranian developments, or domestic U.S. policies should raise crude oil prices by an additional 10%, the net effect is estimated to raise the inflation rate by 0.9% above what it would otherwise be."
650 0 $aPetroleum products$xPrices.
650 0 $aInflation (Finance)
650 0 $aEconomic forecasting.
700 1 $aGoodman, Douglas E.$ejoint author.
710 2 $aUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.$bCollege of Commerce and Business Administration.
830 0 $aFaculty working papers ;$vno. 545.
994 $aC0$bUIU