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001 ocm71833470
003 OCoLC
005 20100908152309.0
008 060901s2007 nyua b 001 0 eng
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020 $a9781400063512 (acid-free paper)
020 $a1400063515 (acid-free paper)
035 $a(OCoLC)71833470
050 00 $aQ375$b.T35 2007
082 00 $a003/.54$222
084 $aCW 7400$2rvk
084 $aQC 020$2rvk
100 1 $aTaleb, Nassim.
245 14 $aThe black swan :$bthe impact of the highly improbable /$cNassim Nicholas Taleb.
250 $a1st ed.
260 $aNew York :$bRandom House,$cc2007.
300 $axxviii, 366 p. :$bill. ;$c25 cm.
504 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [331]-358) and index.
505 0 $aUmberto Eco's antilibrary, or how we seek validation. The apprenticeship of an empirical skeptic ; Yevgenia's black swan ; The speculator and the prostitute ; One thousand and one days, or how not to be a sucker ; Confirmation shmonfirmation! ; The narrative fallacy ; Living in the antechamber of hope ; Giacomo Casanova's unfailing luck : the problem of silent evidence ; The Ludic fallacy, or the uncertainty of the nerd -- We just can't predict. The scandal of prediction ; How to look for bird poop ; Epistemocracy, a dream ; Appelles the Painter, or what do you do if you cannot predict? -- Those gray swans of Extremistan. From Mediocristan to Extremistan and back ; The bell curve, that great intellectual fraud ; The aesthetics of randomness ; Locke's madmen, or bell curves in the wrong places ; The uncertainty of the phony -- The end. Half and half, or how to get even with the black swan -- Epilogue : Yevgenia's white swans.
520 $aExamines the role of the unexpected, discussing why improbable events are not anticipated or understood properly, and how humans rationalize the black swan phenomenon to make it appear less random.
650 0 $aUncertainty (Information theory)$xSocial aspects.
650 0 $aForecasting.
650 2 $aForecasting.
650 2 $aProbability.
650 6 $aIncertitude (Théorie de l'information)$xAspect social.
650 6 $aPrévision.
650 7 $aTeoria da informação (aspectos sociais)$2larpcal
650 07 $aEreignis.$2swd
650 07 $aInformationstheorie.$2swd
650 07 $aPrognose.$2swd
650 07 $aSozialpsychologie.$2swd
650 07 $aUngewissheit.$2swd
650 07 $aWahrscheinlichkeit.$2swd
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